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As Germany’s Ruling Coalition Implodes, What’s Next For Chancellor Scholz?

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Germany’s anti-Russia stance during the Ukraine crisis has pushed the former industrial powerhouse into stagnation, with soaring energy costs and crippling inflation causing deindustrialization. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s popularity ratings have been some of the lowest ever recorded by a German leader at just 18 percent.Germany’s ruling three-party coalition has collapsed after Chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissed Finance Minister Christian Lindner of the Free Democrats (FDP) party on Wednesday.The coalition had been on shaky ground amid increased wrangling over spending and economic reforms.

Why did the finance minister get the sack?

Scholz and Lindner disagreed over further aid to Ukraine while the 2025 budget deficit desperately needs plugging.The chancellor had submitted a «comprehensive plan” to the finance minister to close the budget shortfall estimated at €10 billion ($10.7 billion).It included more state borrowing to lower energy costs, rescue jobs in the beleaguered German automotive industry, offer tax breaks to companies making investments and boost support for Ukraine.Scholz refused to accept other options, insisting that «this ‘either or’ is poison — either security or cohesion, either supporting Ukraine or investing in Germany’s future.»Scholtz’s budget would have required Linder to break the constitutionally-enshrined spending limit known as the debt brake that restricts the federal deficit to 0.35 percent of GDP.But he rejected Scholz’s proposals, saying such a move would have “violated my oath of office.”Scholz claimed Lindner “showed no willingness to implement any of our proposals,” and had often “blocked laws in an inappropriate manner,” engaging in “petty party-political tactics.”Linder advocated financial restraint, adherence to strict spending rules and cutting taxes.A finance ministry paper leaked last week listed a series of financial and economic proposals that included cutting welfare payments, reducing climate protection measures to stimulate economic growth and offering tax cuts for companies. The FDP’s coalition partners were opposed to such measures.After his sacking, Lindner said Scholz had “long failed to recognize the need for a new economic awakening in our country,” and “long played down the economic concerns of our citizens.”The Eurosceptic opposition Alternative for Germany (AfD) party welcomed the implosion of the governing coalition that had led Germany into an economic abyss.»After months of gridlock and countless self-centered therapy sessions, we now urgently need a fundamental political fresh start to lead the economy and the country as a whole out of the severe crisis into which it has been plunged by the ideology-driven policies of the SPD, Greens and FDP,» (AfD) parliamentary leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla said.EconomyGermany Downgrades 2024 GDP Forecast, Expects 0.2% Fall — Economy Minister9 October, 18:14 GMT

What happens next?

Scholz, who will now head a minority government with his Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Greens, has called for a confidence vote in his government slated for January 15.Friedrich Merz, leader of main opposition party the center-right Christian Democrats, is pushing for an immediate no-confidence vote.“We simply cannot afford to have a government without a majority in Germany for several months now, and then campaign for several more months, and then possibly conduct coalition negotiations for several weeks,” Merz said.WorldTwo-Thirds of Germans Oppose Scholz’s Nomination as Chancellor for 2nd Term — Reports13 September, 13:00 GMTIf Scholz loses the vote, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier would have to dissolve parliament and call a snap general election within 21 days.As opposition leader, Merz would be most likely head the next government as chancellor. A Politbarometer election poll found 48 percent said they would prefer Merz and the CDU to head a government.Just 28 percent backed Scholz and 26 percent — the Greens led by Economy Minister Robert Habeck.14 percent supported AfD’s Alice Weidel.Merz has backed the supply of Taurus cruise missiles and fighter jets to the Kiev regime – something that the current government has resisted — insisting that Ukraine “must win”. He also describes himself as a «convinced European» and a staunch advocate of the European Union.

Germany, the second-largest supplier of military aid to the Kiev regime after the US, has been plagued by problems since joining US-led sanctions on Russia. The fallout drove its economy into a technical recession last year, marked by deindustrialization and crippling inflation rates.Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s own popularity ratings have hit new lows 18 percent, according to a September poll by Infratest Dimap. The SPD scored a humiliating 14 percent of the vote in the European Parliament elections in June, trailing behind the conservative CDU/CSU alliance and the AfD.WorldGermany Preparing Aid Package for Ukraine, Including Missiles, Thousands of Attack Drones18 October, 06:09 GMT

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